Canada’s Condo Market in Decline
Suburban Condo Market in Canada Faces Sharp Declines: What Buyers and Investors Need to Know
The Canadian condo market has hit a significant slump in 2025, and nowhere is that more evident than in the suburbs of major metropolitan areas. According to a recent report by Moody’s Analytics, suburban regions around Toronto and Vancouver have seen dramatic declines in condo prices, with losses outpacing those within the urban cores.
Halton Hills, Brampton, Mississauga, and Oakville See Deep Corrections
Communities like Halton Hills have witnessed prices drop more than 50% from their peaks, while other suburban centers such as Brampton, Mississauga, and Oakville have also experienced steeper corrections compared to the City of Toronto. The shift follows a COVID-era boom driven by remote work, which spurred buyer demand for larger spaces away from downtown.
British Columbia Suburbs Not Spared Either
On the west coast, markets like White Rock and West Vancouver have seen condo prices fall between 30% and 40% from their highs—much steeper than the national average condo price drop of just 8%.
Why Is This Happening?
“With booming supply, proximity is commanding a premium, and periphery markets are giving back their pandemic gains,” said Brendan LaCerda, Director of Economic Research at Moody’s. Developers rushed to meet pandemic-era demand with new projects, but as interest rates rose and demand softened, the oversupply created downward pressure on suburban pricing.
Toronto’s Condo Sales Plunge 75%
The pre-construction condo market has taken a severe hit. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), condo sales in the GTA dropped by 75% from their mid-2022 peak by Q1 2025. Meanwhile, the months of inventory for new condo projects have skyrocketed—now 14 times higher than just three years ago.
Mortgage Market Compounds the Problem
Condo buyers who signed pre-construction agreements under low-interest conditions are now facing reset mortgage rates that are significantly higher. This could lead to an increase in distressed listings as owners struggle with affordability, adding further pressure to already falling prices.
“With a wave of new supply poised to hit the market and interest rates remaining elevated, the downward trend in condo prices is likely to endure,” added LaCerda.
What Should Buyers and Investors Do?
- If you're a first-time buyer, this could be an opportunity to explore resale condo opportunities in Ontario at lower prices.
- Investors should be cautious with pre-construction units and focus on location-based demand recovery in areas with stronger fundamentals.
- Watch for signs of mortgage distress and follow updates from the CMHC and Bank of Canada.
Need Help Understanding Mortgages in Today’s Market?
Whether you're refinancing, buying your first condo, or considering investing, mortgage rates and terms play a critical role. Learn more about navigating the current landscape in our mortgage insights column by Robert McLister.
Conclusion: Prepare for Prolonged Uncertainty
The suburban condo market in Canada is undergoing a correction that could persist through the remainder of 2025. With elevated interest rates, high inventory, and declining demand, both buyers and investors must proceed with due diligence. If you’re looking into pre-construction condos or resale homes, market timing and location are now more important than ever.
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